Cars & Crime

The road violence toll of urban sprawl

A registered report of collisions with cyclists and pedestrians in England and Wales

(Registered Report)

The risk of road collision for cyclists and pedestrians is higher in sprawls than in city centres. As a result of commuting, we also suspect that the higher risk of collision caused by residents from car-dependent sprawls is not confined to their own areas but disproportionately imposed on city dwellers. However, due to the absence of direct comparisons we do not know the specific road violence imposed by urban sprawls. This registered report will combine collision data from the Department for Transport and the Urban Grammar Spatial Signatures dataset that characterises geography by form and function to estimate the share of road violence induced by sprawls’ residents within and outside their localities, and relative to levels of road violence generated by city dwellers in England and Wales. Furthermore, using the subset of collisions data including contributory factors, we will provide a lower bound estimate regarding the share of collisions that could be classified as motoring offences. Drawing on these findings we will reassess the widely held beliefs of: i) sprawls as safer than city centres; ii) residents from urban sprawls are more law-abiding than city dwellers; and iii) crime prevention strategies that promote car-dependent developments as effective.

Pina-Sánchez, J., Tait, C., Beecham, R., and Fonseca Zamora, J. (2026). The road violence toll of urban sprawl: A registered report of collisions with cyclists and pedestrians in England and Wales. SocArXiv

Road violence and perceptions of safety among pedestrians and cyclists

(under review at Peer Community In Registered Reports)

This registered report investigates whether involvement in road traffic collisions meaningfully shapes pedestrians’ and cyclists’ perceptions of safety. Drawing on criminological insights - particularly the fear‑victimisation paradox - the study explores the common policy assumption that reducing collisions alone improves subjective safety. Using ESRA2 survey data from 24 European countries, the analysis estimates both average and conditional treatment effects of collision experience on perceived safety, accounting for vulnerability (age, gender) and exposure (active travel frequency). The study employs equivalence testing and counterfactual modelling to assess whether any difference in victims’ perceptions is substantively meaningful. Findings will clarify whether collision reduction strategies are sufficient to encourage active travel or whether broader interventions addressing vulnerability and environmental cues are required.

Pina-Sánchez, J., Trinidad, A., and Loader, I. (2026). Road violence and perceptions of safety among pedestrians and cyclists. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/4dnrc_v4

In defence of walkability as a crime prevention strategy

New Urbanist ideas promoting walkability have many benefits. But they are criticised by proponents of crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), who blame street connectivity for facilitating target recognition, providing access and escape routes and weakening informal surveillance. In this article, we challenge the consensus portraying walkable neighbourhoods as criminogenic by highlighting two issues overlooked by CPTED and environmental criminology. First, the focus on crime counts which confounds crime risk with the number of human interactions in the physical world. Second, the neglect of how walkable neighbourhoods reduce crime beyond their borders, something that becomes clear once motoring offences are brought within the analytic frame. By indirectly promoting car dependency crime prevention programmes such as Secured by Design inadvertently promote criminal harm. Finally, we explore the intersections between CPTED and walkability and suggest that neighbourhoods can become more vibrant, sustainable and safe by reducing road—not street—connectivity.

Pina-Sánchez, J., and Loader, I. (2026). In defence of walkability as a crime prevention strategy. The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice. https://doi.org/10.1111/hojo.70049

Exploring the effect of motor traffic on street crime

(under review at Kriminologie)

Traffic impacts street safety in multiple, often under-recognised ways. In addition to their polluting effect and the obvious risk they pose to pedestrians, we hypothesise that heavy motor traffic may also be associated with increased street-level crime. We elaborate this argument drawing from a wide range of well established crime theories. We explore our proposition using longitudinal data from Understanding Crime, and two-way fixed effects models. We find that perceptions of crime are higher in neighbourhoods affected by heavy motor traffic. More importantly, we find that these two phenomena are associated across time, suggesting a likely causal effect. Lastly, we note that the causal effect of motor traffic on street crime is likely mediated by collective efficacy; i.e. traffic erodes community ties, which in turn make informal surveillance less effective.

Pina-Sánchez, J., and Davies, T. (2025). Exploring the effect of motor traffic on street crime. Crimrxiv. https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.e6bdd2db