Causes of Crime

The Association between Mobility and Crime in England and Wales

Purpose: This study provides the first national-level longitudinal analysis directly linking mobility data to police-recorded crime across local authorities in England and Wales, while controlling for stable structural differences between places. Its purpose is to examine how changes in human mobility are associated with changes in crime, taking advantage of the disruption in mobility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Negative binomial regression models were applied across 328 local authorities from March 2020 to October 2022, with area fixed effects, to assess how mobility across different activity spaces relates to police-recorded crime while accounting for unobserved, time-invariant local characteristics. Results: The exploratory and modelling analyses showed that the mobility-crime relationship varied considerably by offence type and across local authorities. Increased residential mobility was consistently associated with lower levels of property, violent, and public order crimes, while mobility around retail, grocery, transit, and workplace areas was generally associated with higher crime once stable local differences were controlled. Sensitivity analyses suggested the results are robust to plausible levels of unobserved confounding. Conclusion: The impact of mobility on crime during and after the pandemic in England and Wales was not uniform but was shaped by local conditions and time-invariant characteristics. The findings underline the need for place-specific approaches in crime prevention and suggest that mobility-related interventions should be tailored to the structural and social context of each area.

Seyidoglu, H., Pina-Sánchez, J., Malleson, N., and Farrell, G. (2026). The impact of mobility on crime in England & Wales during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Crime Science, 15(22):1-16 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-026-00291-z

Post-pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales

This study of recorded crime trends in England & Wales spans three and a half years, that is, two covid pandemic years from March 2020 and 18 ‘post-pandemic’ months following cessation of covid restrictions. Observed crime rates were compared to expected (based on 5-year ARIMA models) and the ambient population (using Community Mobility Reports). It finds that, In Year 1, observed rates diverged dramatically from expected, waxing and waning generally in line with the movement restrictions of three national lockdowns. In Year 2, movement restrictions loosened and observed crime rates moved towards but mostly remained far from expected. In post-pandemic Year 3, people’s movement increased and observed crime rates continued towards expected. By mid-Year 4 many rates remained below expected levels, their mean monthly differences including: theft from person (− 22%); burglary (− 20%); vehicle crime (− 29%); violence & sexual offences (− 27%); robbery (− 16%) and; public order offences (− 21%). An exceptional increase in shoplifting achieved 20% above expected rates by August 2023. Methodological limitations and further research on shoplifting and other issues are discussed. The main conclusion is that crime trends generally followed ambient population movement and that enduring lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic period, notably increased work-from-home, account for continuing below-expected rates of many crime types.

Seyidoglu, H., Dixon, A., Pina-Sánchez, J., Malleson, N., and Farrell, G. (2024). Short, medium, and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime trends in England and Wales. Crime Science, 13(6): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00201-1