Causes of Crime
I’ve collaborated with several Criminilogy colleagues in studies exploring trends and correlates of crime. At the moment I am working with Dr. David Buil-Gil and Prof. Ian Brunton-Smith in a study re-estimating the association between collective efficacy and street crime after taking into account differential under-recording in police statistics.
Post-pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales
This study of recorded crime trends in England & Wales spans three and a half years, that is, two covid pandemic years from March 2020 and 18 ‘post-pandemic’ months following cessation of covid restrictions. Observed crime rates were compared to expected (based on 5-year ARIMA models) and the ambient population (using Community Mobility Reports). It finds that, In Year 1, observed rates diverged dramatically from expected, waxing and waning generally in line with the movement restrictions of three national lockdowns. In Year 2, movement restrictions loosened and observed crime rates moved towards but mostly remained far from expected. In post-pandemic Year 3, people’s movement increased and observed crime rates continued towards expected. By mid-Year 4 many rates remained below expected levels, their mean monthly differences including: theft from person (− 22%); burglary (− 20%); vehicle crime (− 29%); violence & sexual offences (− 27%); robbery (− 16%) and; public order offences (− 21%). An exceptional increase in shoplifting achieved 20% above expected rates by August 2023. Methodological limitations and further research on shoplifting and other issues are discussed. The main conclusion is that crime trends generally followed ambient population movement and that enduring lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic period, notably increased work-from-home, account for continuing below-expected rates of many crime types.
Seyidoglu, H., Dixon, A., Pina-Sánchez, J., Malleson, N., and Farrell, G. (2024). Short, medium, and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime trends in England and Wales. Crime Science, 13(6): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00201-1
The Role of Deprivation and Alcohol Availability in Shaping Trends in Violent Crime
It is well known that both deprivation and alcohol availability are associated with violent crime. However, less is known about whether the former moderates the latter. Pioneering the linkage of novel alcohol availability measures derived from consumer data with police data and an index of deprivation, we examine inequalities in violent crime across small-level geography (LSOAs) for the whole of England. Our findings confirmed a recent upward trend in recorded violent crime in England between 2011 and 2018 and substantial between-area variability in recorded violent crime, as well as an increase in violent crime inequality across LSOAs during the period of analysis. Violent crime was higher in areas with increased deprivation and alcohol availability, especially in the form of on-licensed premises. On-licence availability, in the form of pubs, bars and nightclubs, explained variability in recorded violent crime more so when compared with off-licence availability. A positive interaction effect between alcohol availability (in the form of on-licensed premises) and deprivation showed how deprivation amplified the impact of alcohol availability, with more deprived areas having a stronger impact of on-licence availability on violent crime. Deprivation is thus an important contextual factor when considering rates and the social ecology of violence. Our findings suggest a need to respond to the disproportionate impact of violence on areas with higher levels of deprivation and availability of on-licensed premises.
Lightowlers, C., Pina-Sánchez, J., and McLaughlin, F. (2023). The role of deprivation and alcohol availability in shaping trends in violent crime. European Journal of Criminology, 20(2):738–757. https://doi.org/10.1177/14773708211036081